The additional charts below shows key Senate races to watch, as well as the performance of each party in a generic congressional ballot.The key to Donald Trump’s surprising 2016 victory was his outsized performance in nonurban parts of the electorate, especially whiter rural counties in the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden’s job approval rating is dismal, consumer confidence is at or near all-time lows, and most Americans think the economy will get worse, not better, over the next year,” Cook’s editor-in-chief and publisher wrote in a note. But, let’s not overlook the fundamentals. “There’s no doubt that we are going to see Democrats win in states where a stronger GOP nominee would have been successful. Oz, an ex-Bridgewater CEO and the ‘gentle giant’: How the Pennsylvania Senate race could shake up national politicsīut Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter suggested a week ago that while there has been a “shift in opinion among many political professionals about Democrats’ chances in the midterm campaign,” it might be an “illusion.”

Raphael Warnock has a 4-point edge over Republican candidate Herschel Walker, according to RCP’s average.įrom MarketWatch’s archives (May 2022): Dr. In Georgia’s race, incumbent Democratic Sen. In Pennsylvania’s Senate contest, for example, Democratic candidate John Fetterman has a 9-point advantage over GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls. The improvement in Democrats’ Senate odds also has come as polls in some key races favor that party.

In another key race, Blake Masters won the GOP Senate primary in Arizona, helped by $15 million in funding from billionaire Peter Thiel as well as former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Related: Trump endorses ‘Eric’ in Missouri GOP Senate primary - but which one? (Note that PredictIt says the sum of all odds can be higher than 100%, or $1, especially when they have been changing rapidly, because they reflect most recent trades.)Īmericans’ frustrations with high inflation are helping to keep President Joe Biden’s approval ratings low - and giving a talking point for Republicans to use against Biden and his fellow Democrats. Republicans’ chances for regaining the House haven’t seen that much of a drop and remain strong, staying well above 80%. PredictIt’s odds for control of the Senate flipped to favoring Democrats rather than Republicans on Tuesday, as voters in Kansas and other states with elections cast their ballots. Voters will feel more cross-pressured this fall when they are voting not on a specific amendment, but on candidates.” “However, it’s also important to remember that this was a clean up or down vote on an issue. “The resounding rejection of a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the Kansas legislature to further restrict abortion access suggests the motivating power of the abortion issue for this fall, especially in suburban areas,” said analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in a note on Wednesday.

Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that established a constitutional right to an abortion. That outcome bolsters the view that Democratic voters are energized by the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned Roe v.

Nh midterm election results 2018